For a long time, in the competition with electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles have not been challengers, but rather market supplementers. Because in the passenger car market, which accounts for the majority of automobile sales, pure electric or hybrid models powered by lithium batteries are the absolute mainstream, fuel cell vehicles seem to have to find another way to break through in the commercial vehicle field.

So, will the car companies that have not given up the hydrogen energy technology route really abandon the large passenger car market? The situation is not so pessimistic. In the fuel cell passenger car market, in addition to Toyota and Hyundai, which launched mass-produced models in previous years and have a strong development momentum (well-received but not popular), giants such as BMW have also begun to try recently and released a hydrogen car mass production plan.

So far, which car companies and market players are quietly working on fuel cell passenger cars? Why has the sales volume of fuel cell passenger cars, which has been developed for many years, not improved? What is the key to breaking the deadlock?

Undercurrents surge, major automakers "silently" lay out hydrogen car tracks

Hydrogen-powered vehicles are the vent. With the increasingly fierce competition in electric vehicles, the layout of fuel cell vehicles is not only to pave the way for the next generation of new energy vehicle technology routes, but also to open up new tracks in homogeneous competition. In this context, many automakers such as BMW, BYD, Tesla, Porsche, GAC, Haima, Foton, SAIC, and Great Wall have begun the layout of hydrogen vehicles.

On September 5, the BMW Group announced that it would launch the first mass-produced hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (FCEV) for the market in 2028. Two days ago, the BMW Group and Toyota Motor Corporation signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on comprehensive cooperation in fuel cell technology. BMW will launch fuel cell vehicle products with brand characteristics based on the results of the cooperation between the two companies; in addition, the two parties will also effectively reduce the overall cost of fuel cell technology through cooperation, thereby promoting the popularity of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the market.

The news that BMW announced that it would mass-produce fuel cell vehicles in 2028 really excited the fuel cell vehicle industry, because after Toyota and Hyundai, another international automaker joined the hydrogen vehicle camp, which to a certain extent enhanced the confidence of domestic peers.

In fact, it is not just BMW that has officially announced a timetable for mass production of hydrogen vehicles. Many car companies have made plans for fuel cell vehicles, either explicitly or implicitly.

In August this year, BYD's patent for "on-board hydrogen storage device and vehicle" was officially released. According to relevant statistics, since 2007, BYD has been actively involved in the accumulation of hydrogen-related technologies and has applied for and obtained a number of patents. As of now, BYD has more than 60 hydrogen patents, of which more than 50 are related to hydrogen vehicles.

As an electric car giant that dominates the sales rankings, BYD continues to develop these hydrogen car patents. It can't be said that it is completely pessimistic about fuel cell vehicles, right? Although no actual models have been launched, BYD will suddenly hold a surprise hydrogen car press conference one day in the future, so don't be surprised.

BYD is not the only one who has been paying attention to fuel cell vehicles, and BYD's rival Tesla has also changed its view on the development of hydrogen vehicles.

According to foreign media reports, Tesla's founder Elon Musk has made it clear that Tesla will move from electric cars to hydrogen cars. Tesla's first hydrogen car, Model H, will use advanced hydrogen technology, with higher energy density and longer driving range.

Musk once exchanged fire with Akio Toyoda in the media, bitterly complaining about the drawbacks of fuel cell cars. Now he has gradually put aside his prejudices and embraced the future of hydrogen cars. Even though Tesla has not seen any actual actions in the layout of hydrogen cars for the time being, the change in the views of its founder also represents the feasibility of the future development of hydrogen cars to a certain extent.

Another luxury car brand that has quietly laid out fuel cell cars is Porsche. In January this year, foreign media reported that a new document found by the German Patent and Trademark Office showed that Porsche was considering producing hydrogen fuel cell cars. Although there are no more details for the time being, from the information that has been circulated, this car will be a high-end luxury model.

Among the car companies that have laid out fuel cell passenger cars in China, many car companies such as SAIC, GAC, Haima, and Changan have taken practical actions. Some car companies have even launched related hydrogen models and begun to seek the implementation of business models.

For example, in 2022, Changan Automobile's new energy brand Deep Blue SL03 was launched and a hydrogen fuel cell model was launched. This car uses fuel cells as power and has a maximum range of more than 700KM.

Haima Automobile, which has been investing in the research and development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles since 2013, launched its second-generation hydrogen fuel cell vehicle 7X-H in January 2019. After several upgrades, in July this year, the first project of Haima Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle 7X-H demonstration operation has safely traveled more than 6,500 kilometers.

In November 2023, GAC ERA Zhijing flagship hydrogen-electric concept car was launched globally. The car is based on GAC's latest multi-energy platform architecture, equipped with hydrogen fuel cells and front and rear axle distributed motors, achieving 540 horsepower, 800km+ long range, and zero emissions.

In April this year, SAIC Roewe brought the world's first hydrogen fuel extended-range vehicle, the Roewe iMAX8 hydrogen fuel extended-range hybrid MPV, to the 18th Beijing International Auto Show. This model is equipped with the latest low-power fuel cell system developed by JEH Technology for passenger cars (especially EREV models), which is also an active exploration of hydrogen-electric hybrid in passenger cars.

Fuel cell passenger car market faces difficulties due to various constraints

At the 2024 (6th) Gaogong Hydrogen and Electricity Industry Conference held in June, many industry insiders believed that compared with the new energy passenger car market, the scale of the new energy commercial vehicle market is relatively small. If hydrogen fuel cell vehicles want to achieve larger-scale applications, they must vigorously expand the passenger car field.

In fact, in China, compared with commercial vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars have developed relatively slowly, and its market is difficult to form a scale due to multiple factors such as cost and infrastructure support.

"The relatively backward construction of hydrogen refueling infrastructure and the high cost of hydrogen production and transportation make hydrogen energy have no obvious advantages in the field of passenger cars compared with pure electric vehicles." An industry insider said that the performance and life of hydrogen fuel cells can basically meet the requirements of passenger cars, and after multiple rounds of cost reduction, the cost of fuel cells and auxiliary components and hydrogen storage systems is still somewhat high, making it difficult to compete directly with fuel vehicles and electric vehicles.

More critical than the reduction of vehicle cost is the supporting of hydrogen refueling stations, the economy and convenience of hydrogen refueling, which require a long time to cultivate. Given the low coverage rate of hydrogen refueling stations and the objective reality that hydrogen refueling station operations are not profitable, the current hydrogen fuel cell vehicles obviously cannot meet the needs of private cars to recharge at any time.

It should be noted that the key to the large-scale breakthrough of the fuel cell vehicle market may not lie in commercial vehicles, but in passenger vehicles. Commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles are not comparable in terms of scale and coverage of the population. At present, many people compare fuel cell vehicles with electric vehicles to strengthen the competitive relationship between the two, but there is no need to be so opposed.

Earlier, fuel cells were developed for passenger cars. Their high energy density, good low-temperature performance, rapid response, safety and environmental protection can make them very useful in passenger cars. Even compared with power lithium batteries, fuel cells have obvious advantages in long-range, low-temperature performance, and energy replenishment efficiency. Therefore, fuel cell vehicles can choose to avoid the advantage range of pure electric vehicles and choose to demonstrate applications in areas with underdeveloped power grids, long-distance transportation, or low temperatures in the north, or they may take the lead in opening up the situation.

Of course, passenger cars are of great significance to promoting the large-scale development of the hydrogen vehicle market, which does not mean that the current state support for the promotion of commercial vehicles is meaningless. The government-subsidized electric vehicles started with the easiest-to-operate buses. Fuel cell vehicles also benefited from the government's promotion of the purchase of commercial vehicles such as hydrogen buses and sanitation vehicles. Fortunately, in the past two years, with less government intervention, more market-oriented hydrogen heavy trucks have gradually become the main body of hydrogen vehicle demonstration operations. The increase in the number of hydrogen heavy trucks in operation will drive the construction of hydrogen energy infrastructure, and the success of its business model can also provide some reference for fuel cell passenger vehicles.

If the government can "set up the stage and perform" to guide the construction of supporting infrastructure such as hydrogen refueling, and vehicle manufacturers can pay more attention to and invest in the hard technology of fuel cell vehicles, the fuel cell industry chain will further accelerate cost reduction and iteration. I believe that the industrialization process of fuel cell passenger vehicles will be faster, and the time to break through the market will eventually come.